Happy New Year! We briefly interrupt our “lenders and rates” series to bring you the 2025 version of Fletch Predicts.
Another year is in the books. I like doing these posts as it’s fun to look back and see where I was right and wrong. My hit rate isn’t bad at all!
Let’s start with sports. I hit on the NBA last year, and we’ll see if I can do it again. But we’ll start with football.
No matter which team you follow, wouldn’t it be awesome to see a Detroit Lions Superbowl win? That’s my pick – Detroit vs Buffalo, with Detroit winning their first Superbowl.
(note: I write these a bit in advance, so I hope both are still alive when you read this.)
Baseball… I picked the Braves last year. It seemed like a good pick, but they fell way short. But I am stubborn and am picking them again.
Basketball – let me make a bit of a dark horse pick here: the NY Knickerbockers!
Hockey: The Carolina Hurricanes storm in and take the cup! That’s the way I see it.
For business, I see 2025 much like 2017. In the Donald’s first term, small businesses did well due to his favorable business policies. I see that happening again, and as a lender, I see lending and borrowing increasing as businesses look to grow. The S&P 500 seems pretty unstoppable as well, so I think 2025 should be a good year for most of us.
Rates will slowly come down as well. We will see a few cuts, but I would temper any expectations the Federal Funds rate will return to near-zero levels. I have my doubts we’ll ever see that again, and the low we hit next year (let’s say by autumn) may well be our “new normal.”
On the world stage, I am hoping to see a less volatile world and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East subsiding. That would help the economy as well.
Technology will continue advancing, with AI becoming an expected part of many of our devices and applications.
I also feel, however, that we’ll start to see the beginnings of a shift, as AI makes a lot of white-collar work easier, with fewer people required. Where that leads, I don’t know – I can only predict this stuff, but I can definitely see the beginnings of a world with fewer jobs than people who want them. But we’ll figure it out – we always do, and almost all technology results in a net gain for society, and I feel AI will be no different.
Ok, there you have it – Fletch predicts for 2025. I hope you have a great New Year and that the days and weeks ahead shine bright.