The beginning is near the end!
I say that because in this series of “how do lenders arrive at interest rates?”, I’ve talked about different factors that affect the rate you pay.
But where does that rate originate? It doesn’t start at zero (after all, money is never free).
In general terms, most lenders will utilize existing benchmark rates as a starting point. Then those benchmark rates get adjusted upwards using all of the factors I’ve discussed in previous posts (e.g., equipment type, collateral, credit scores, market conditions, etc.) In other words, a starting point using a benchmark rate is established, then your loan parameters go down a conveyor belt (so to say) comprised of all the other factors I’ve posted about, each one possibly affecting the final rate you pay.
So what are these benchmark rates? Let’s take a quick look:
The Federal Funds Rate: This is the most common benchmark rate, and many lenders use this as a starting point for short (24-60 month) loans. This is the rate banks charge each other for overnight lending (which is assumed to have the least amount of risk). The Federal Funds rate is the one most people know about, because that’s generally the rate that’s talked about when the news says “The Federal Reserve raised/lowered rates 25 basis points”.
ICE Swap Rate: This is the rate where banks will swap interest rate payments. It’s a useful tool to help banks manage risk and volatility. For example, Bank A may have excessive variable rate loans, while Bank B has an abundance of fixed rate. Both would be better off with a more balanced spread, so they swap interest payments on some of them. The Ice Swap Rate is the premium they pay for this swap. There are different ICE Swap rates for different time periods, and for consumer lending purposes, the longer ICE Swap terms are typically used as a benchmark for longer-term loans.
SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate): This one is increasingly used for variable-rate loans. This is the overnight lending rate using US Treasuries as collateral. It is calculated daily by the Federal Reserve, so it’s always current and relevant to the economy, and since it utilizes treasuries, it’s considered quite stable. When rates are going to change in a loan, SOFR makes for a good starting point.
Treasury Yields: Long-term loans can be tricky. Since predicting the future is hard, we can’t know what economic conditions will be in a decade or more. But our best guess can come from what the US Government is comfortable with on treasuries. So, Treasury Yields may be used as a baseline for longer-term loans.
There are lenders that may use other benchmarks, but in general terms, these four should cover most loans and terms.
Now, it’s very important to remember that these are only baseline rates. They will always go up based on risk. And while most of us like to think we personally are good credit risks, the truth is, risk-free lending is impossible. So the baseline rate is always going to go through the gauntlet I’ve previously written about. Even lending to billionaires carries some risk. Trust me, Bill Gates himself would pay higher than the federal funds rate if he borrowed money.
I hope this post gives you at least a basic insight as to where rates begin. If you’re interested in seeing some of these rates, here are a few links:
ICE swap rate (requires a license subscription)