Whew… that was some ride 2022 took us on. Between the Fed going wild on rate hikes to whispers of possible recession to fuel prices to Fletch finally hitting again on a sports prediction, 2022 was quite interesting.

2023 promises to be pretty unique, so let’s get to it with another year of Fletch Predicts, starting like I always do with sports.

Like I said, I got back into the “Win” column with basketball (Warriors), and my Hockey pick (Tampa Bay) made the finals, so I’m on a sort-of hot streak.

Football: I have to go with the Bills. How can you not? Especially if the playoffs go through Buffalo and their January weather.  

Basketball: I hit with the Warriors last year, but will go another way this year. If they don’t implode, I like the Brooklyn Nets to win it. It’s not fair to pick a second team and have it count, but if it did the Denver Nuggets are a dark horse. 

Hockey: Always hard to predict. I’m going old school this year with the Boston Bruins. 

Baseball: I picked the Mets two years in a row, but I am dropping them even though they spent a zillion dollars on players. I’m staying local this year – Atlanta Braves! 

Now let’s talk about business and the economy. 

2022 saw rate hike after rate hike, including an unprecedented four consecutive 75 basis point increases. 

I have good news and bad news here. The bad news is rates are very likely to keep rising well into 2023, maybe for the entire year. The good news is the increases will not be as large. 

The Federal Reserve has been raising rates to address inflation, which remains stubborn. And they will not lower them until they are 100% sure inflation is vanquished. So even when inflation peaks (maybe late this year, maybe 2024?), rates will stay higher until some time passes. 

My prediction is if you are financing equipment, any 2023 rate will probably be a rate you want to lock in, as it won’t be going lower anytime soon (and could still go up). 

More business predictions: AI… We’re hearing a lot about AI. AI will be increasingly used in business, and coupled with Big Data, it will drive many business decisions. I don’t think we’re ready to throw our artwork and such to AI, but AI is very viable for things like target markets and such.

Supply chains have loosened up for some goods, but remain frustrating in others. I can feel a changing of blame in certain industries though, and that’s my prediction. For awhile it was fair to blame Covid, but for some companies, the “Lean” aspect of operations is what’s causing a hiccup in the delivery of expected products and services. And consumers/buyers are noticing. The late December Southwest Airlines fiasco is the tip of the iceberg here. Don’t let that be you.   

This also represents opportunity – if your competitor is faltering because they don’t have enough delivery trucks or workers or machines or whatever, that’s an opening you may not have had in years’ past. Can you step in? (Hint: fast financing can help.) 

For most industries, 2023 should be fairly stable, even with whispers of recession (which if it happens, I feel will be mild and short). But I also feel the previously mentioned “lean” aspect will loom larger as a narrative. It might even spawn a catchphrase or two.  

Oh, one last thing: we’re going to hear about Twitter ALL-YEAR-LONG. I do not know if that’s good or bad. 

And there you have it – some predictions for 2023. Let’s continue my hot streak – Go Bills! 

So I’d like a re-do. Here we go:

I won’t predict sports winners, because at this writing, nobody knows if anything will resume. I’m a big sports fan, and really want to see them come back in 2020, and while leagues keep talking about it, two things are in the back of my mind: What happens if a player tests positive? Does the entire team have to quarantine? What does that do to competitive balance and the schedule? 

But assuming they do play, my second question bugs me more: without fans in the stands, will it be the same? Part of me says “no”. So we’ll have to see.

Now, I don’t want to sound like a downer, so let’s look at the upside. 

Let’s say sports take a breather for 2020. I feel there will be openings for other types of entertainment. There are a slew of movies we haven’t seen, the videogame industry is thriving, and even things like board games may be making a comeback. I know a few people who play classic board games virtually through Zoom. How about family yard games like cornhole? 

We can take this a step further: If we’re going to stay home more, how about a larger TV? Companies that make and sell home entertainment/recreation equipment are poised to do well. I know bicycle manufacturers and retailers are as busy as they ever were right now.  

Just when you thought desktop computers have left our homes, they are going to come roaring back as “the office” starts to become a thing of the past, and “the home office” takes off. This also bodes well for manufacturers of home office furniture, and even home center retailers and contractors as remodeling will likely see a boom as well. 

Will the gym ever be the same? We don’t know, but I do know home exercise equipment is booming. We will also likely see some good innovation here, as virtual trainers become more and more popular. Step on the mat, the trainer appears live on your wall. That will be mainstream sooner than later.  

It’s very possible we are living in the biggest societal change event of our lifetimes. Industries will fall quickly, but other industries will rise just as quickly. Many companies will see this and shift (and that’s where equipment financing and Section 179 come in – you know I have to get those in there!) 

I can be a little pragmatic, but I feel that’s healthy. But in my pragmatism, I tend to see opportunity. And where there’s opportunity, there’s growth. 

I predict we’ll be ok. 

Here we are in 2018, and you know what that means: another edition of Fletch Predicts!

I always do sports, and I was on a roll for a while. I predicted basketball and baseball right in 2016, and then I nailed the 2017 Superbowl – three in a row! Things were really looking up, but then I crashed back to earth, and haven’t hit on anything since. But that never deterred me – let’s get to it for 2018.

Starting with the Superbowl – there are a few teams that look strong: you have the Patriots, who are always there. The Eagles are surprising, and they may have an old NY Giant vibe, when a backup quarterback named Jeff Hostetler led them to a Superbowl win against the Bills in 1989. Can Nick Foles do the same for Phili?

But I’m going with an unconventional pick. I like the Minnesota Vikings to become the first team to play the Superbowl on their home field. They will play the Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of the first Superbowl a young Fletch watched start to finish! And this time, the Vikings will win!

Hockey – to me, that’s the hardest sport to predict, because it all depends on momentum and the hot goaltender. Right now, the Tampa Bay Lightning look very strong. Let’s go with them.

Basketball… I like the Houston Rockets to make a big leap, and grab the title. They will play the Celtics in the finals. LeBron finally gets to rest in late spring.

Baseball – all NY Yankees, all the time. They already had a modern day Murder’s Row brewing with Aaron Judge and company, and adding Giancarlo Stanton to the mix may just set a record for home runs in a season. It should be fun if you’re a Yankees fan, and, of course, for you Yankee haters, there’s more to hate!

Now that sports are done, let’s go into the economy: As you know, H.R.1, The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, recently passed, and while the full effects on everyone won’t be known for a while, I like it for businesses, and I do see a steady economy for the next year. The business climate is quite good, and confidence is high, so that always helps. 2018 should be a good year for most industries and companies. And Section 179 will be there all year, sitting pretty at $1,000,000, thanks to a nice bump from the above-mentioned bill.

I’m not sure what to make of the Bitcoin phenomena, and I can’t pretend to even fully understand it, but it and other Cryptocurrencies deserve watching. This is on my “need to know” list for 2018. Put it on yours too.

Last year, I thought Virtual Reality would make big strides, and gaming companies like Microsoft and Sony proved that prediction accurate by embracing that technology in a big way. I also thought 3D printing would be more mainstream, but it hasn’t quite caught on as much yet. But it will – it’s inevitable.     

So there you have it – some predictions for 2018. I hope you had a great New Year, and are ready to hit the ground running!

Ok, let’s predict sports first, because we’re all still in a sporting frame of mind. For the Super Bowl, I see… the NY Giants. I know, I know, a lot of you think I’m nuts, and that Green bay or New Orleans will win – I say no, and Eli Manning will throw another crazy pass, and the NY Giants will win. Mark my words.

Errr… wow

As someone who grew up in the 80’s, it’s really sobering to think of what year it is. Back then, the “Year 2000” seemed soooo far away. Yet, we’re now in the second decade of the millennium. Time certainly marches on.

But this isn’t a reflective post – instead, I’ll repeat what I did last year and give you a few predictions:

• Section 179 was given a nice boost for 2011, meaning we probably won’t hear much about it from the government. Which is fine – leave it alone (I’ll continue to trumpet Section 179 here, as I really like it, and think it’s a great business incentive.)

• The Falcons will win the Super Bowl. The Red Sox will win the World Series, the Orlando Magic will win the NBA title, and I have no idea who will win the Stanley Cup, because I do not follow hockey that much (can I say the Red Wings here?)

• We’ll see some bones thrown to businesses from congress, because really, we need our own stimulus. Perhaps the ITC (Investment Tax Credit) will make a comeback. That, combined with Section 179 and a solid equipment financing partner (ahem) could mean 2011 is a better year than you are currently foreseeing.

• However, in the end, I feel 2011 will continue the “slightly rising stagnation” that was 2010, and by the third quarter, we’ll be pretty complacent in what are slightly raised numbers. In other words, we won’t see many huge dips or spikes in economic activity. They’ll call it a recovery, but really, it’s just the new normal.

• On a personal note, Mr. and Mrs. Fletch will enjoy their new pool quite a bit.

Happy New Year, everyone!!

• 2009 will be tough for many folks. There is no way around that. Jobs will disappear, and workers will be displaced (made redundant, downsized, rightsized, kicked to the curb, kicked to the curb with a steel toed boot, kicked to the curb with a steel toed boot and run over by the company limo on the way to a corporate retreat, etc.)

• Unemployment will rise. 8%… 9%… heck, there is a possibility that we will see double-digit unemployment in some areas. I will attribute this to several factors: the obvious downsizing in many industries, coupled with an increased aggressiveness in offering retirement incentives to older, higher-paid baby-boom workers.

• But from this chaos will come opportunity as well – it will present a chance for many companies to differentiate themselves from weaker competition. Like you’ve heard me say here before, it’s easy to compete in good economic times. So 2009 will cull the herd a bit in regards to established companies.

• Related to the above, companies that traditionally used cash will now look to leasing more and more. Equipment leasing can still be had, and companies will find out that it’s pretty darn profitable as well. However, lease terms will continue to tighten some, as equipment finance companies and banks look to limit losses and bad debt. But again, strong companies will be able to get credit.

• Continuing on the opportunity theme, not every laid off / displaced / “asked nicely to leave” ex-employee is going to sit in his or her Barcalounger watching Wheel of Fortune. 2009 will see record numbers of small business startups.

• Those small businesses will need help, and the new administration will answer. I predict the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 will be renewed, and perhaps even enhanced. Meaning my old buddy Section 179 gets a nice little facelift.

• In fact, we will see several attempts by the government to help businesses. Meaning we may see the return of the Temporary Investment Tax Credit (MIA for almost a quarter century). Personally, my industry (equipment finance) would love to see something like this.

• The Titans will win the Super Bowl, the Yankees will win the World Series, the Celtics will win the NBA title, and the Red Wings will win the Stanley Cup.

• The Dow will fluctuate wildly – one day, it’ll be doom and gloom, then there will be a rally. Wash, rinse, repeat. Antacid sales on Wall Street triple. And at the end of the year, the Dow will sit right around 8400.

• Fuel prices have had enough of the roller coaster that was 2008. Demand has dropped, and will stay at lower levels, somewhat stabilizing fuel prices.

• Lastly, in order to stimulate the local economy, the government establishes the “FletchFund”, enabling the purchase of home theater equipment, a pool table, and that sweet tractor at Home Depot (the big one.) This is a fairly necessary step for a healthy 2009, and one I encourage Obama get right on.