Another year is in the books. I like doing these posts as it’s fun to look back and see where I was right and wrong. My hit rate isn’t bad at all!

Let’s start with sports. I hit on the NBA last year, and we’ll see if I can do it again. But we’ll start with football.

No matter which team you follow, wouldn’t it be awesome to see a Detroit Lions Superbowl win? That’s my pick – Detroit vs Buffalo, with Detroit winning their first Superbowl.   

(note: I write these a bit in advance, so I hope both are still alive when you read this.)

Baseball… I picked the Braves last year. It seemed like a good pick, but they fell way short. But I am stubborn and am picking them again.

Basketball – let me make a bit of a dark horse pick here: the NY Knickerbockers! 

Hockey: The Carolina Hurricanes storm in and take the cup! That’s the way I see it.

For business, I see 2025 much like 2017. In the Donald’s first term, small businesses did well due to his favorable business policies. I see that happening again, and as a lender, I see lending and borrowing increasing as businesses look to grow. The S&P 500 seems pretty unstoppable as well, so I think 2025 should be a good year for most of us.

Rates will slowly come down as well. We will see a few cuts, but I would temper any expectations the Federal Funds rate will return to near-zero levels. I have my doubts we’ll ever see that again, and the low we hit next year (let’s say by autumn) may well be our “new normal.”

On the world stage, I am hoping to see a less volatile world and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East subsiding. That would help the economy as well.

Technology will continue advancing, with AI becoming an expected part of many of our devices and applications. 

I also feel, however, that we’ll start to see the beginnings of a shift, as AI makes a lot of white-collar work easier, with fewer people required. Where that leads, I don’t know – I can only predict this stuff, but I can definitely see the beginnings of a world with fewer jobs than people who want them. But we’ll figure it out – we always do, and almost all technology results in a net gain for society, and I feel AI will be no different.

Ok, there you have it – Fletch predicts for 2025. I hope you have a great New Year and that the days and weeks ahead shine bright.

I conversed with two last week, and it struck me how different they are in communication preferences.

Client one, who we’ll call John, is old school. John not only calls me on the phone, he’s one of those people who insists on phone conversations all the time. Trust me, if you don’t have a phone that gets answered, you have almost no shot at doing business with John. 

It’s not that John can’t use e-mail – he will if he must. But he doesn’t like to write, so his answers are brief, and he’ll say “just call me and I’ll explain it”. John once told me he wouldn’t hire a landscaper because the guy texted him back after John called him. He’s like that.

Now let’s go to client two, who we’ll call Pete. I’ve done business with Pete for years, and we’ve spoken maybe two times. Pete simply does not like to talk on the phone – we can have week-long conversations via e-mail, and understand everything just fine. In fact, if you *can’t* carry on an extensive e-mail conversation (sometimes covering two or three subjects), your chances of doing business with Pete are low. I’m pretty sure if Pete has a landscaper, it’s someone he hired via e-mail. 

Most people are not as hardcore as these two, and fall somewhere in the middle. But (and you’re probably wondering what this has to do with equipment financing) it illustrated to me how important it is to satisfy both types. 

Sure, we answer calls, but a few years ago, we developed a self-assessment (it’s right at the beginning of our homepage at www.crestcapital.com) where prospective customers could check their eligibility without contacting us – it has proven very popular. 

For the person who likes the phone, it can still give them a good idea if they qualify, and save them time.

And for that client who does not want to converse? It’s tailor-made for them, because they can apply right away, and even get an approval via e-mail. And while we do call and speak to clients at the listed business number before funding (that’s simply prudent), we often finance deals with minimal phone contact. The “Pete’s” of the world really appreciate that. 

Whatever your business, you probably deal with both John and Pete. And while the number of Pete’s is increasing, neither is wrong, and satisfying both is one important way to differentiate yourself. 

It’s time for my annual “Fletch Predicts” post, where I’ll make a few predictions for the incoming year.

Like always, let’s start with sports:

Sigh… there was a time when I really nailed these. But I missed everything in 2018, and have to go back to mid-2017 to find my last winner. But I’m feeling good about these picks, so you folks headed to Vegas take note.

In football, we’re going with a New Orleans vs. San Diego Super Bowl. I know everyone was on the Rams and the Chiefs bandwagons all year, but they don’t have the defense to make the big game. And who wins the Super Bowl? I like Philip Rivers to get his ring, so go Chargers!

Next up are hockey and basketball, since their championships occur in the late spring / early summer.

Let’s go unconventional (and old-school) in basketball and say we trust in the process, and the Philadelphia 76’ers take home their first title since Dr. J and Moses Malone were there.

I have never hit a hockey pick, but I don’t feel bad about that, because it’s easily the hardest of the four major American sports to predict. We’ll go old school again and say the Boston Bruins win it all.

I love baseball. Some other sports do excitement better, but there’s nothing like a summer day at the ballpark. I picked the Yankees last year, and they got bumped in the playoffs. Let’s do it again – the Bronx Bombers win in 2019.

Onto the economy – there will be two rate hikes in 2019, with talk of a third that may or may not materialize. The economy will continue to chug along strongly, despite political upheaval that’s inevitable when the new Congress is sworn in. We’ll also hear whispers of a recession (like we are right now), but I believe that’s more because of the “can’t go anywhere but down” mentality than anything. Mark my words – 2019 will be a good year for businesses.

Last year, I talked about Bitcoin, but that seems to be over with for now. It’s been so rocky that nobody is going to trust it once it rises again. It may be the “future” (tech guys still insist the blockchain is the most secure way for monetary transactions to be handled), but it’s going to need time to become mainstream.

Construction surprised me a bit this past year, and I see that industry moving forward a bit more in 2019.  Health, tech, and energy all look good for 2019 as well. Sustainable / renewable energy could really surprise as more and more companies see fossil fuels as an “old” tech. And speaking of old/new, Artificial Intelligence (AI) makes big strides this year as an industry.

Section 179 doesn’t need a mention (oops), as it’s staying at a robust $1 million for 2019. So plan your purchases in advance, knowing it’ll be there for you.

Ok, there we go – Fletch Predicts for 2019. Hope your year has started off great!

Last January, I picked both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Chicago Cubs to win their respective titles in 2016. Both won.

Next up on the pro sports calendar was the Superbowl, which I picked earlier this year. My pick was the Patriots.

It looked dicey for three quarters, but Fletch prevailed (with a little help from Tom Brady).

3 in a row. Now to apply that same magic to predicting equipment financing trends (hint: it’s always a good idea, but even more so in 2017.)

Welcome to 2017! I hope you had a great New Year, and I also hope you are ready for 2017’s edition of “Fletch Predicts”.

First off, if you read last year’s, you know where I’m starting – your equipment financing and Section 179 maven correctly predicted both the Cavs and the Cubs winning their respective championships. This was a monumental call, and had me thinking of giving all this up and running out to Vegas. Then Mrs. Fletch intervened, and that was that.

So let’s start with sports:

For the NFL, I am going with the New England Patriots. One more title for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. And just for fun, let’s say they get some revenge and beat the NY Giants.

Baseball… Cubs legend Ernie Banks said “let’s play two”. Who is Fletch to argue? The Cubbies defend their title.

Basketball – I’m going with the 2017 double dip and picking the Cavs again. Although one day, LeBron is going to want to go home when the season ends.

Hockey – I’ve confessed to not following Hockey as close as the others, but I’m paying a bit more attention this year, and I like this New York Rangers goaltending duo. So let’s pick them.

Ok, onto politics and economy. I’m not touching what I think Donald Trump will do, because nobody can really predict that. But I do think the recent stock market run will continue – businesses will be happy with even the perception of less regulation, so I think we’re in for a robust 2017.

I see two technologies really making strides this year – virtual reality and 3D printing. They’ve both been around for a while, but this is the year I think they both make more noise and really crack into the mainstream. Probably VR a little faster than 3D printing – I see VR being the hot gift in 2017 – 3D printing will have to come down in pricing a bit more, but it’s coming as well. Remember, a Plasma TV used to be $20k. Now you get one seemingly just for showing up to a Black Friday sale.

Notice something? No Section 179 prediction. No need – it’s staying at $500,000. Make sure you take advantage of it this year. 

Ok, that’s what I have for 2017 predictions. Place those bets, folks! (legally, of course!)

The biggest “not hot” in terms of industries are those negatively affected by technology. And the very first one that comes to mind here is the printing industry.

Printing is still with us, and it’s probably never going to completely go away, but wow, the web has really taken its toll on printing in general. I know a few local offset printers that are now out of business (or turned more into graphical design services), all because of the web. Think about it – a company can now have its entire catalog online, and send e-mail with a link to it. No more expensive printing and mailing costs. Plus, the virtual catalog can easily be updated. If you want to update a print catalog, you have to print an entire new one.

Another industry is the office furniture industry (FF&E, which stands for Furniture, Fixtures, and Equipment). This is likely due to two related reasons: first, with the workforce becoming more virtual, companies are seeing less of a need for desks and cubicle dividers and such. Second, some companies may be selling a lot of that equipment off, creating a robust (and far cheaper) second hand market.

Lastly, a surprising (well, maybe not so surprising) industry losing steam is Telecom / Phone Systems. This is due to a few factors. Like I mentioned earlier, more companies are becoming virtual, which means fewer desks, which means fewer phones. Plus, with cloud-based PBX systems being paid for as a monthly software-as-a-service expense, the need for traditional phone systems has become almost nil.

So there you have it – three industries on the rise in my previous post, and here, three industries on the decline. At least through my equipment-financing eyes.

For example, do you buy now, or wait for next year, when snazzy new features might be incorporated into what you are buying? Or will waiting give your competition too much of an advantage, from which you may never recover?

It’s been my experience that the decision to buy new equipment usually makes itself pretty clear, especially when we’re discussing straight profit-enhancing equipment (like manufacturing equipment, better software, new delivery trucks, or similar.) When buying new equipment makes your company (and/or product) better, faster, and more efficient, it’s usually a pretty clear “buy now” scenario. The advantage of having reliable delivery vehicles or machines that can turn your product out faster is easy to see.

But what about equipment that isn’t directly tied to making profit? When is it the right time to buy new desks, new break room / cafeteria equipment, new cubicle fixtures, or even new carpet? How about signage – when is the right time to buy new signage? Or to upgrade the look of your front entrance?

These things might not be so clear, especially in the day-to-day sense. And it’s easy to let them slide. After all, a desk from 1965 still performs its intended function just fine.

True story – there was this manufacturing plant in my hometown, and I knew a lot of people that worked there. Kind of like that place that almost defines a town. It was a fairly modern plant in terms of machinery, but the “front offices” were right out of the 1960’s. They even still used a “switchboard” in the 1990’s, with an operator plugging calls in. While they prided themselves on the fact that a human still answered the phone, I can only imagine what potential clients felt when they saw the antiquated furniture and old-style telephones. They stayed current in raw production, but everything else, from communication equipment to computers to the desks, never improved. They went out of business around 2005.

I’m not saying new desks would have saved this company. I *am* saying that the lack of mindset that buys new desks and keeps the company face looking contemporary definitely contributed to their demise. It’s just like your clothing – you need to look the part you are playing.

My advice to executives? Look around at your industry peers, competitors, and clients. You should be right in that upper-third in terms of “look”. I’m not saying you have to be the sleekest, but the company that doesn’t have nice furniture or a good looking sign is not one many people want to do business with. Looks aren’t everything, but they do say a lot about your company’s health.

I’ve been doing this for a few years now, and have had an uncanny ability to get extremely lucky with some really “out there” predictions (I will forever hang my hat on that Eli Manning thing, to the point where I’m mentioning it every year), as well as whiffing on a few things. Such is life. But here they are – my predictions for 2015:

• I like the economic outlook for 2015. I’m not a skilled enough economist to know what affect the falling fuel prices will have on the overall economic structure, but I do know more money in everyone’s pocket due to a declining expense can’t be all bad.

• In my industry (equipment financing), I predict a fairly strong year. As bank regulation increases, smaller businesses are increasingly looking to alternative lenders.

• I think Obama will use his last two years on more social-type programs (we’re already hearing rumblings of this), and I predict the other side won’t like them one bit. I also predict people from both sides of the political spectrum will argue a lot (really going out on a limb here, aren’t I?)

• We got that last minute boost for Section 179 last year, then it dropped like a stone again for 2015. I predict another boost, and earlier than the 11th hour that was 2014.

Now let’s do sports, which is my favorite:

• Football – I whiffed on my Broncos pick last year, and they’re already out. Let’s go with the underdog Colts this year. I feel Lucky (get it?)

• Baseball – I’m sticking with the Dodgers and Don Mattingly. C’mon Baseball Gods – get Donnie Baseball his ring!!

• Basketball – I hit with the Spurs last year, and said it would be Tim Duncan’s last hurrah. But he’s still around, but I like the moves the Dallas Mavericks made. So that’s my pick.

• Hockey – I missed on my Olympic prediction last year. This year, let’s go with the NY Rangers again.

And there you have it. I hope it all comes true (especially Section 179 – I would like to see that boosted nice and early this year.)

Twas a night in December
In an office on a hill
Where the executives all gathered
With their accountant named Bill

“Your taxes are too high”
Said Bill with a frown
We have nothing to claim
To bring the number down

“But what can we do?”
The executive VP did vent
Our profits were strong
And into the bank they went

We were told to curb expenses
So the old equipment we did use
Yes, it needed some duct tape
(that’s how Jim got that bruise)

“I have an idea”
said a voice from the right
The executives turned around
To see an intern bathed in light

We can replace the old equipment now
And here’s the part that’s divine
We can write the entire cost off
Thanks to Section 179

The executives all smiled
So wide they almost burst
But intern continued
“You need to act by December 31st“

The executives took action
A plan they did sketch
All because they listened
To an intern named Fletch

And that’s how I got my start. Ok, maybe the “bathed in light” part is a bit much. But it was a good poem, right? Have a great holiday, everyone. And remember, get those Section 179 equipment purchases in (and operational) by the deadline, which is midnight, 12/31.

See you in 2015!

In looking back over my old posts, I have been pretty good at this. I’ve predicted increases in Section 179, and I not only predicted the 2012 super bowl, but also said Eli Manning will throw another crazy pass in a Giant’s win. Wow, talk about a great prediction – I’m going to milk that one forever (we can forget my 2013 sports predictions – I whiffed on all of those.)

But it’s now 2014, and the slate is clear. Time for some predictions:

• The economy is going to remain pretty much like it has the last year or so. We’ve fallen into a “new normal”, and what we have now is what we have. Don’t look for any insane growth or any real dips – we’ve settled into a groove, and we’re going to stay there for the foreseeable future. So if you are reading this and still afloat business-wise, that’s good news. Because more of the same is coming.

• Section 179 has reverted back to its old low limits. This means a $25,000 deduction. I predict that is not going to stay – there is almost no chance this popular tax code doesn’t get some kind of boost. So take it from Fletch – buy new (or new to you) equipment with confidence. You’ll get your deduction.

And now that I’ve sufficiently satisfied the “business” part of this post, let’s get to sports, which you are all waiting for.

• Football – I like the Broncos to win it all, and get Peyton Manning that second ring. He’s been unbelievable this year, and it seems like the stars are all lining up. That said, I will say “look out” for the Chargers as well. The “hot” team has fared well in recent years, and the Chargers are peaking at the perfect time. But I still think the Broncos win.
• Baseball – I am sticking with the Dodgers and Donnie Baseball. If anyone deserves a World Series ring, it’s that guy.
• Basketball – San Antonio gets revenge on the Heat this year. Tim Duncan gets one more championship before riding off into the sunset.
• Hockey – Hockey is so tough, as it really lends itself to the “hot team” (or “hot goalie”) theory more than any other sport. But I will predict a Russian gold medal in the Winter Olympics (and I would LOVE to see them wear those old CCCP jerseys!)

And there you have it – Fletch predicts for 2014.